Russia Is Testing the West. Will We Pass?

The extraordinary revelations of the failed Russian drone attacks on a German airport have sent shockwaves across Europe. Germany rightly condemned this “hybrid warfare” and pledged to retaliate. Coming on the heels of CIA Director Ratcliffe’s reported trip to Moscow to warn Russia against attacking NATO, it begs the question: Is Putin getting ready to launch a new war of aggression – this time against NATO itself?

This latest outrage was no aberration, but part of a longstanding pattern of provocations. Putin has been testing the Western alliance for weaknesses – both in our capabilities and our political will. Earlier this year, Russia threatened to bomb “decision-making centers” in Latvia in retaliation for allegedly hosting Ukrainian drone operators and allegedly sending drones into Lithuanian airspace. Last September, Russian fighter jets entered Estonian airspace, and Russian drones swarmed Poland’s airspace.

These gambits cannot be separated from Putin’s ongoing war on Ukraine. Indeed, given the failure of Russia’s spring-summer offensive and its stunning casualty numbers – estimated at 1.2 million – Putin may well be heightening the stakes on the gamble that it will induce America and Europe to pressure Ukraine into a bad deal. He may also be escalating in the belief that America cannot focus on two wars at once, and would thus be compelled to back down on supporting Ukraine to prevent an even greater catastrophe from unfolding.

We can’t wish this war away, nor can we put it on ice until we’re finished dealing with the threat from Iran. In fact, the two are very much linked: Iran has long supplied the Shahed drones Russia uses to kill Ukrainians, while Putin is supplying the Iranian regime with the military and intelligence support it needs to kill Americans. No wonder Putin expressed his solidarity with Iran “defending their interests against enemies” at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit in Bishkek earlier this week.

A strong, decisive response is absolutely critical to restore deterrence. If Putin believes that the Western alliance is weak, divided, and unwilling to do what it takes to defend its interests, he won’t just use hybrid attacks against NATO – he’ll push further until he destroys the alliance itself.

Our response must be twofold. One, we must back Germany 100%, and help to put steel in the spines of our European allies in the face of these provocations. Just as President Trump said at the NATO Summit this past July, we must make it clear that America’s commitment to the Article 5 principle of collective security is “ironclad,” and that testing that commitment will not be tolerated.

As Chancellor Merz pushes for increased pressure from Europe, the U.S. Congress can back up these measures by passing the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia Act, which would ratchet up the pressure on Putin by going after the top five buyers of Russian oil and gas as well as Russia’s shadow fleet. Shortly before his untimely death, Senator Graham secured President Trump’s support for the bill, and it passed the Senate by an overwhelming margin last month; the House should prioritize this and get it to the President’s desk before the end of this session.

In addition to squeezing Russia economically, America and our European partners should give Ukraine what it needs to win on the battlefield. In just four years, the Ukrainians have become world leaders in military innovation and resilience. They’re not asking for boots on the ground – just the boost needed to drive this invading army out of their country. Enough with the half measures – let’s provide the decisive support needed to make Russia’s position untenable.

This isn’t just about Ukraine, nor is it about isolated attacks on a German airport; it’s about the future of the Western alliance, and the world order that has kept America safe, prosperous, and free for the past eight decades. We cannot afford to fail this test.

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