How We Win in Iran

Earlier this week, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced the launch of Operation Economic Outcast - the latest step in America’s economic pressure campaign against the Islamic Republic. This is an important and necessary move that, if pursued to the full extent, will go a long way toward bringing this war to a righteous conclusion.

In addition to a new round of sanctions against 60 entities, individuals, and vessels around the world that enable the Iranian regime to continue to procure weapons and generate revenue, this new phase promises to target “five of Iran’s most vital lifelines”: digital assets, technology, gold, aviation, and shipping. Without offering specifics, this is a warning to all nations that are continuing to do business with Iran to disentangle themselves before serious economic pain is inflicted.

The resumption of maximum pressure on Iran is having the desired effect. The economy has been decimated; Iran’s currency is at its weakest in history; and inflation is at the highest it's been in more than 80 years.
For many authoritarian states, that might have been enough to bring a government to its knees - but Iran has a few key advantages to exploit. First and foremost, it can rely on oil exports to China and Chinese banks to keep the Iranian economy afloat. Without that edifice of support, the mullahs’ days are truly numbered.
But the regime also benefits from the fact that it has absolutely no compunction about reducing its population to utter penury, as long as it remains in power. Despite being given every chance to choose a different path, they’ve chosen time and again to prioritize their military capabilities, network of terrorist proxies, and nuclear program over the well-being of their own people. This is both the raison d’etre and the survival strategy for this rotten dictatorship; the suffering and immiseration of the Iranian people means nothing to them.
To execute a real “Economic D-Day,” undercutting Iran’s financial lifelines - especially from China - is critical to exacerbating the divisions within the Iranian state and its security apparatus. There’s nothing like missing multiple paychecks amid a collapsing economy to make you question your commitment to a dictatorship.

It also means flooding the zone with covert operations within Iran’s political and security apparatuses, as the Mossad has so expertly done. That should be mirrored with support for Iran’s civil society, which yearns to be free of this hated regime. This was done successfully by President Reagan for Poland during the Cold War, and is a model that remains relevant today.

Finally, we must create economic ties that disconnect the IRGC from economic control and provide liquidity for the Iranian economy. The Gulf countries will be central to this, but the US can lead and organize. Iran has tremendous human capital, and the desire to become part of the community of nations is huge. America will benefit enormously from facilitating that development.

None of this is easy, and it will likely require additional kinetic action and pain on our part to execute. But after years of appeasement, President Trump made the wise decision to ensure that Iran could no longer hold the whip hand over the US and our allies in any sphere. We can fulfill that mission - provided we’re ready to do what it takes to win.

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