American Deterrence Won’t Be Restored if We Don’t Get Ukraine Right

Last week, Russia launched a brutal new wave of attacks against Ukraine – even using a hypersonic ballistic missile – and hit targets including a water supply facility and several schools.

The message couldn’t be clearer: Vladimir Putin has no intention of ending this war on any terms other than his own.

Not only that, European leaders fear that he may soon expand his targets beyond Ukraine: Russia recently threatened to bomb “decision-making centers” in Latvia in retaliation for allegedly hosting Ukrainian drone operators, and allegedly sending drones into Lithuanian airspace. This wasn’t the first provocation of a NATO member state. Last September, Russian fighter jets entered Estonian airspace, and Russian drones swarmed Poland’s airspace – provocations that were clearly designed to test NATO for operational and political weakness, and cow the West into acceding to Putin’s desires.

Yet it seems that the further he pushes, the more the West sinks into complacency. After four years of war, there is a palpable sense of fatigue among policymakers about the prospects for peace between Russia and Ukraine. And with the U.S. now at war with Iran, there is a temptation to view the Ukraine crisis as a distraction from the more pressing issue at hand.

Unfortunately, geopolitics never operates in a vacuum. Putin’s protracted war on Ukraine remains a grave threat to European security and global stability, and an enduring example of the failure of Western – specifically, American – deterrence.

These crises are linked in multiple respects. Don’t forget: Both Russia and Iran have committed substantial resources to undermining American security. And just as Putin is giving military and intelligence support to Iran, Iranian-supplied Shahed drones have killed scores of Ukrainians over the course of the war.

President Trump understands that peace can only be secured through strength. That’s true in the Middle East, where we are engaged in a righteous mission that, if successful, will change the world for the better; and it’s true for Ukraine, where Putin is determined to show the West’s impotence in the face of Russia’s determination to conquer Ukraine. If we want to live in a rules-based world in which America and our allies are secure and free, we cannot allow the lawlessness of either the Russian or Iranian regimes to stand.

As much as we may want to turn our attention away from Ukraine, we cannot afford to take the pressure off Russia. In fact, the more weakness or disinterest we show, the worse Putin’s behavior will become, and the more time he will have to rebuild his capabilities to wage war on Ukraine and beyond. Don’t forget – Russia isn’t even winning this war. In fact, thanks to Ukraine’s incredibly innovative warfighting, Russia’s advances have stalled and the Kremlin has endured one devastating setback after another.

What does that look like in practice? For one, it means supplying the Ukrainians with the tools they need to win, and using all the tools at our disposal to increase the pressure on the Kremlin. But it also means ensuring that American forces remain stationed in potentially vulnerable, strategic locations. To that end, plans to cut back the military capabilities the U.S. would devote to NATO in a conflict, coupled with other steps to shrink our presence in Europe, send a disastrous message to Putin at a critical moment.

President Reagan put it well: “Every lesson of history tells us that the greater risk lies in appeasement. . . . If we continue to accommodate, continue to back and retreat, eventually we have to face the final demand, the ultimatum.” Ultimately, our ability to restore deterrence rests on showing strength consistently in the face of authoritarian aggression – whether that comes from Iran, or China, or Russia. Just as we must win in Iran, we cannot allow Russia to claim victory in Ukraine.