The Turmoil in Congress Is Bad for U.S. Leadership Abroad
The turmoil in Congress this week, in which the Speaker of the House was ousted by his own party for the first time in our country’s history, will further erode U.S. leadership abroad and severely hinder our ability to deter America’s enemies. This is particularly true regarding our ability to defend American interests by helping Ukraine defend itself against Putin’s invasion. Regardless of politics, this is a terrible outcome for all Americans.
Absent American support, Ukraine will be unable to defend its sovereignty, ensuring Putin achieves his objectives to rebuild the Russian Empire/Soviet Union. This matters to America, not just Ukraine. Allowing Russian victory would leave America in a weaker position and hurt our ability to deter further Russian aggression. That puts at greater risk the nearly 100,000 U.S. service members defending NATO’s borders. It would allow Russia to dominate the Black Sea and project naval power into the Mediterranean, carrying real consequences for shipping and industry, as well as for energy exploration and maritime boundary disputes. An American retreat from supporting Ukraine would be taken as proof by the Chinese Communist Party that America is unserious, making a war in the Pacific more likely. Weakness begets more war; only strength deters it.
Regardless of what propagandists in the Kremlin pump out, America and its allies did not provoke this invasion by Vladimir Putin. NATO posed no real threat to Russia when Putin launched his attack on Ukraine, and it still poses no offensive threat. No, this war is and always has been about Putin’s desire to reconstitute the Russian empire as he sees it – a vision that was central to the 2008 invasion of Georgia and the 2014 annexation of Crimea. When I was CIA Director and then Secretary of State, we were aware of Putin’s larger ambitions, and so we built a model of deterrence that kept him from invading. We succeeded – Putin did not take an inch of Ukraine on our watch.
Under the Biden Administration, though, our model of deterrence fell apart. Almost immediately, his Administration appeased Russia on energy policy and arms control policy. Its botched withdrawal from Afghanistan broadcast utter incompetence and weakness, and this embarrassment was followed up by President Biden suggesting he could tolerate a “minor incursion” into Ukraine by Russia. Given the opportunity, Putin invaded.
To maintain deterrence, our adversaries must be convinced that America possesses the resolve to deny acts of aggression that harm our interests. Yet Putin and several other regimes that oppose America are clearly beginning to doubt our resolve and ability. The window of opportunity Putin seized upon last year is growing larger with every month the war in Ukraine continues. Why else would Kim Jong-Un agree to sell Russia ammunition in exchange for help in developing nuclear submarines? Why else would the Iranian regime sell drones to Putin in exchange for help with its own nuclear program? And why else would China, America’s most powerful adversary, buy up sanctioned Russian oil at a discount, fueling Russia’s economy? It is not only because of President Biden; they do not believe America possesses the resolve to continue leading – and upholding – the global system as it currently exists. The turmoil in Congress this week, which was in part over the approval of continued aid to assist Ukraine, is just further evidence to our adversaries that America is not willing to defend its interests abroad.
In the absence of American leadership, the world becomes a more volatile and dangerous place. That is not some political slogan based on misguided faith in American exceptionalism; it is a fact. I saw it myself up close, first as CIA Director and then as Secretary of State. When we elect leaders who are committed to defending freedom and prosperity abroad while denying regimes who wish to impose their own designs on the world, America and the whole world prosper. Recent history is evidence of this: President Reagan’s “peace through strength” strategy crushed the Soviet occupation of many Eastern European countries, including Ukraine, as well as some of our most stalwart allies in the Baltic nations, Romania, and Poland. American engagement in the world laid low the specter of global communism. Today, we should not indulge the fantasy that America can be prosperous, secure, and free without this same commitment.
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