Will Russia Use Nuclear Weapons In Ukraine? Seven Things You Need to Know
Putin’s war in Ukraine is not going well. It was unprovoked and the war crimes and human rights atrocities have shocked the world. Not since Joseph Stalin slaughtered millions of his own people have the people of Russia witnessed anything like this. It is the largest military conflict since World War II in Europe and a much larger military quagmire for Russia than their war in Afghanistan—which also ended in failure and defeat. Here are the details of ongoing events.
Russia is facing huge battlefield losses, desertion among the ranks, and military units leaving weapons and vehicles on the battlefield as they flee. The military operation has been plagued with supply and logistical issues, with Russian forces, frequently running short of both food and ammunition. The weakness of the Russian military has been exposed, an embarrassment for a country thought to be a superpower at one point. Now Ukrainian territory that had been captured by Russian forces is being reclaimed by Ukrainian forces. Ukraine’s President Zelensky is vowing to retake not only the Donbas region but also to drive Russia from Ukraine’s Crimea, which Putin illegally annexed in 2014. Thousands of Russian troops have been killed and wounded.
Because of this unexpectedly high casualty rate, President Putin instituted an involuntary mobilization (akin to a draft) of 300,000 reservists. This is more than the size of the initial force that invaded Ukraine. Anti-war demonstrations have followed this decision, with hundreds of protestors arrested. Thousands of draft-aged men are fleeing the country. Some Russian politicians have called for a withdrawal from Ukraine, and a few have even called for Putin’s resignation. Putin tried to hide details of the invasion of Ukraine for months and then to downplay what he termed a simple “military operation.” The Russian people are beginning to find out the truth.
Vladimir Putin is humiliated and desperate. Sometimes desperate men take desperate and foolish actions. So, because Putin indicated he might use tactical nuclear weapons—this threat must be taken seriously. It seems unlikely Putin would resort to this. However, if he thinks he could get away with it—and in order to save face and reverse his battlefield losses—there is always the possibility he could order a limited nuclear attack. Also, Putin is claiming that four regions by Russia in the southeastern region of Ukraine are now a part of Russia itself. This is a farce and illegal. But it appears he is considering using Ukraine’s “attack” on this so-called new sovereign Russian territory as a ploy for the use of nuclear weapons—even though the land in question is a part of Ukraine.
- When a leader says, as Putin did, “this is not a bluff,” it indicates that he has a credibility problem. It also represents a man with a personal self-confidence problem. Putin has been backed into a corner of his own making. A logical, stable leader would seek an exit ramp in order to save face. Such a leader would seek to negotiate a way out of the situation. Putin is apparently neither logical nor stable, as he doubles down with a threat to use nuclear weapons.
The Biden Administration takes this threat seriously. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan stated that frank and stark conversations are ongoing behind the scenes between U.S. and Russian leaders. This is good. The United States, as the only remaining superpower, is the only nation capable of exacting a high price on multiple levels if Putin does the unthinkable. However, not since the end of the Cold War has the world faced the possibility of a nuclear attack. That is sobering.
If Russia uses nuclear weapons in Ukraine, it will bring catastrophic losses to Vladimir Putin personally and politically. Most of the world has condemned his invasion of Ukraine. However, even his erstwhile allies are now backing away from Putin. China’s President Xi met recently with Putin, with China’s support of Putin becoming very lukewarm. China is calling for Putin to de-escalate the conflict with Ukraine. Turkey’s President Erdogan—after initially refusing to condemn Russia’s invasion—is now calling for Russia to leave Ukraine, including Crimea.
Russia is losing the war in Ukraine—for now. If Putin orders a nuclear strike, it will turn into a catastrophic loss on every level for Russia. The world will never be the same, but neither will Russia ever be the same. Some of Putin’s corporate and political friends in Russia are tepid in their support of the Russian leader. If he escalates the war in Ukraine to a nuclear level, they will likely turn on him. His removal from office, even his assassination, would be a possibility. In order to not be internationally ostracized, Russian leaders will instead attempt to make Putin the pariah and scapegoat.
The threat of a nuclear escalation of the war in Ukraine is real. However, even if Putin uses a nuclear device, it will not stop the Ukrainians from the fight for their homeland. They have proven their tenacity and their battlefield capabilities. That is not likely to change. Rather than deter the United States and our European allies from arming and supporting Ukraine, the West will only increase in its determination that Ukraine wins this war – if Putin goes nuclear. Human civilization is at the point where we cannot afford to live under the threat of the use of nuclear weapons. Hopefully, humanity will remain that way. If the world were to give in to this type of nuclear extortion, it would be used again not only by Russia–but by other nuclear-armed aggressors like North Korea or, regrettably, some day possibly Iran.
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