Ukraine: A Crisis of Putin's Own Making That Threatens the World Order

What experts have predicted, and Ukrainians have feared, is happening:  The invasion of Ukraine has begun.  For the first time since World War II, Europe is facing a major, unprovoked attack by one nation against another—with the intention of illegally taking territory and subjugating an entire population.  With the end of that war in 1945 and the subsequent establishment of the United Nations, the prospect of this type of thing happening was literally one that no one could imagine.

Vladimir Putin’s aggression against a neighboring country shakes the world order and is a stark reminder that the status quo of European national boundaries is not a given.  Putin is a powerful leader who rules Russia as a de facto dictator—unbound by international norms and unchecked by his own government.  It is no exaggeration to say that this is the darkest geopolitical day in Europe since the demise of Adolf Hitler.  Russia’s invasion is a violation of international law, the sovereignty of nations, and basic human rights.

Considering this, there are two very important questions that present themselves:  First, what are Putin’s ultimate intentions?  Secondly, what will be the response of the international community?

With the occupation of Donetsk and Luhansk and Putin recognizing them as being independent from Ukraine—this is clearly an act of war.  On Russian television, Putin rejected the idea of Ukrainian sovereignty.  To him, they are not a nation, and they are categorically a part of Russia—and he said so. In his televised remarks, the Russian president clearly threatened Ukraine, its political leadership, and its citizens.  All indications are that Putin is not content to merely claim the eastern portions of Ukraine—but will attack all the country and forcibly make it a part of greater Russia.

This is evidenced not only by Putin’s rambling and inflammatory speech to the Russian people, but also by the posture of the 190,000 Russian troops on Ukraine’s border.  This is a large invasion force.  Over half of these troops have now moved out of their administrative assembly areas to tactical assembly areas.  Some have crossed into Ukrainian territory.  Others have deployed to attack positions.  Military hospitals and large supplies of blood and plasma are in place near the frontlines of the Russian forces.  Ukraine faces Russian armor, artillery, and aircraft on three sides.  None of this is indicative of a training exercise.  This is war.  It appears that Putin’s intentions are to take all of Ukraine.

What will be the response of the United States, Europe, and the rest of the world?

Virtually all the world has been critical of Russia and the buildup of troops on Ukraine’s border.  But talk is not only cheap—it is ineffective when dealing with Putin.  His ambitions for personal power and his goal of a greater Russia make world opinion of him inconsequential.  The former KGB officer is fairly immune to what people think of him.  He has proven this by his physical attacks on political enemies, his invasion of Georgia in 2008 and Crimea in 2014, and now his intention to start a war with Ukraine.

It is encouraging that the U.S. and Europe are finally coming together with sanctions targeting certain Russian enterprises and individuals.  But this is not enough.  Implemental sanctions, as announced by President Biden, are insufficient and ineffective.  We are dealing with a shrewd megalomaniac whose aggressive intentions are clear.  The goal of making a man like this reconsider his actions by some sanctions, with more to follow if he doesn’t behave, is sophomoric and naïve.  Putin does understand power and strength.  The only way to counter him is to be as clear, stark, and aggressive as he is.  Any lack of will to act by the U.S. and our allies invites eventual appeasement with Putin.  He knows this.

We need clear, convincing leadership from our President, something we presently do not have.  We need a President George H.W. Bush moment – when in countering Sadaam Hussein’s attack on Kuwait, he said, “This will not stand.”  Bush said it, meant it, and followed it with strong, unequivocal action.  This is not to suggest we go to war with Russia.  However, in President Biden’s remarks and his actions regarding Putin’s attack on a neighboring country, it is significant that President Biden is not financially targeting Putin himself.  Biden is sanctioning two banks and three families close to the Kremlin. Biden promised more sanctions eventually if Putin doesn’t stop what he is doing. That is not a deterrent to Putin.

Europe is dependent on Russian gas and oil.  Prior to Biden taking office, America was using its energy independence and abundance to begin providing energy to Europe, effectively beginning to end its reliance on Russia.  Biden stopped this on his first day in office.  By closing the Keystone pipeline, ending oil production on some federal lands, and placing other restrictions on U.S. energy companies—Biden single-handedly changed the equation for us and the world.  Gasoline prices are at a 40-year high.  Germany gets 60 percent of its energy from Russia.  Europe purchases gas from Russia. The United States is even buying Russian oil.

Now is the time for President Biden to have an epiphany—a Bill Clinton moment – when then-President Clinton realized his more radical, progressive policies were not working and he moved toward the center, announcing that the era of big government was over.  Now is the opportune time for President Biden to free up American energy production and liberate Europe from captivity to Russian energy—and bring down energy prices for all Americans.  This would send an unmistakable message to Putin that U.S. leadership is serious and will not blink to counter him. Keep in mind, most of Russia’s income comes from its exports of gas and oil.

This act by our President would be a significant first step in opposing Putin’s attack on Ukraine.  This, along with sanctioning Putin personally and temporarily removing Russia from the SWIFT financial system, would likely get Putin’s attention.  It likely would cause Russia to stop the attacks on Ukraine and remove their troops. Meanwhile, bolstering NATO and activating the 40,000 troop NATO Response Force in Eastern Europe would also send a message to Putin that the world is united and that his actions will not stand.

Anything short of actions like those described above will not work.  The rhetoric and the actions of the United States and our allies and partners must be strong, clear, and consistent.  Short of Europe going to war with Russia, any and all reactions to what Putin is doing must be on the table.  This is not the time for the first “tranche” of sanctions or for an incremental response to Putin.  It is the time for strong leadership and decisive responses to Putin, whose actions would not only change national boundaries in Europe—but would also negatively impact the world order, international law, and how countries resolve conflicts with one another.  This must not stand.

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