Two Wars Are Imminent. What You Need To Know.
Most of us are old enough to remember that as the old Soviet Union began to collapse in 1991, the world felt a collective sigh of relief, as that collapse meant the Cold War was ending.
The threat of a nuclear war between the United States and Russia—something that three generations had feared and often prepared for—was over, without a single shot being fired. The outgoing Bush Administration and the new Administration of President Bill Clinton talked of a “peace dividend.” We believed that wars begun by major nations was a thing of the past. The states that were part of the Soviet Union began turning toward the West, many of them embracing democracy.
We now know that aggression by major powers is not a thing of the past. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi epitomize what we thought was in the dustbin of history: a country planning to invade another sovereign nation for the sole purpose of conquering them and subjugating their citizens. They embrace unprovoked war. What was unthinkable is about to happen.
For Putin, it has already happened. Russia invaded the Republic of Georgia in 2008 and still occupies that country. In 2014, they invaded and annexed Crimea. Additionally, they attempted to overthrow the Ukrainian government, tried to stoke a civil war in that country, and still occupy parts of the eastern portion of Ukraine. Some 14,000 people have been killed in this war over the last seven years.
Now over 140,000 Russian troops are strategically placed on the Ukrainian border, with more en route by rail and airplanes. Russia has combat units in Ukraine’s southern border with Crimea, has over 100,000 soldiers on its border with eastern Ukraine, and under the guise of “war games” with its ally Belarus, Russia now has tens of thousands of troops on the northern border. Ukraine is facing an invasion on three fronts.
Russia denies that any invasion is planned. Do not believe them. British intelligence reports that Putin is already selecting government officials to serve in Ukraine. When Putin’s Russia promises not to invade their neighbor, remember the words of another Russian also named Vladimir. Vladimir Lenin quoted an old English proverb in writing about politics: “Promises, like pie crust, are leaven to be broken. That’s the way of the world.”
While this is happening, Communist China still threatens Taiwan. Incursions into Taiwan airspace have increased dramatically. Chinese patrol boats cruise the waters around the island nation. Chinese President Xi is not even denying or hiding his intentions. He insists that Taiwan is a part of China and must be united with the mainland, using military force if necessary. China has warned the United States to stay out of this affair. Analysts believe an invasion of Taiwan is already planned. It is not a matter of if, but rather of when China will attack Taiwan.
There are probable reasons why Russia and China have not already invaded the free and sovereign nations of Ukraine and Taiwan. The chief reason is timing. On February 4, the Winter Olympics begin in China. It is a big cultural, geo-political coup for this autocratic nation that violates human rights and has imprisoned over a million of its citizens to host these prestigious games. Russian President Putin plans to join his Communist ally for the opening ceremonies.
In Ukraine, it is winter. While the weather is already cold, much of the terrain is not completely frozen. Putin has massive amounts of armor and artillery on the border. But heavy military equipment like this does not function well on muddy or soft ground. By late February or the first of March, the ground in Ukraine will be solidly frozen. This will enable tanks, troop carriers, and self-propelled artillery to maneuver.
The Olympic Games end February 24th. President Xi will not have to worry about international criticism or boycotts once the Olympic Games have ended. The probing of Taiwan’s waters and airspace will have given the Communists valuable information about Taiwanese air defenses and how they respond to incursions and possible attacks. Some 5,000 miles away, the ground will be solid in Ukraine.
Do not underestimate the strategic cooperation between America’s adversaries. Russia and China both perceive the United States as divided. They view America—despite evidence to the contrary—as a declining power. They look at our chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan and the perceived weakness and vacillation of Joe Biden as an opportunity to pursue their own strategic interests. With some of our allies confused by this Administration—and our enemies emboldened—the time will be ripe for the acting out to begin.
Do not be surprised if a Chinese invasion of Taiwan and a Russian invasion of Ukraine occur virtually at the same time. In the minds of these adversaries, President Biden and his team will be unable, or unwilling, to respond effectively to two international crises at the same time. Mixed messaging and lack of coordination recently between NATO and the Biden Administration will enable Putin and Xi to believe that a unified response to their aggression by our European allies will also be highly unlikely. It seems they have little to lose.
What would make the above scenario much worse would be if, at about this same time, Iran detonates their first nuclear bomb. The international community has no accurate information about how far along Iran is in its nuclear research and development—as they have thwarted international inspections and slow-walked talks in Vienna about the JCPOA. Experts believe the breakout time for Iran to have a nuclear weapon has gone from years to months—to now weeks.
The world is a beautiful place. It also has dangerous neighborhoods. We must be clear-eyed and realistic about evil men in high places. We must see the world as it is—not as we wish it to be. How we respond to these brutal autocracies and their evil intentions is an imperative. It is okay to hope for the best—as long as we prepare for the worst. There is a new axis of evil: Russia, China, and Iran. Truth is still truth, even when it is unpleasant or alarming.
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