A Quick Look at the Economy, Elections, National Security – and Hope – What Are the Facts?

Wesley Smith

October 17, 2022

6 min read

As midterm elections approach, there is much prognostication as to what will happen on November 8, 2022. One political party hopes to gain a majority in at least one, if not both, of the congressional chambers. The other party—while fearing that—doubles down on policies of the Biden Administration that they claim are vital, but in polls are unpopular with the American people. The intersection of the economy, the election cycle, and how secure Americans feel are both fascinating and complicated.

We are living through the worst economic crisis in 40 years.

Last month’s Consumer Price Index report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics was not encouraging. Inflation is 8.2% over last year, above what was predicted.
Food costs continue their out-of-control spiral, up 0.8% month over month. But cumulatively, food is 13% higher than just one year ago.
Gasoline prices–that only lowered slightly over the last two months--are on the rise. With OPEC cutting production, fuel prices are expected to rise dramatically and are already creeping upward. The Energy Information Administration reports that gas prices are 20 cents higher than they were in the last week of September.
To fight inflation, the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates. It has done so five times this year and will probably raise the cost of borrowing money in November and again in December. This makes lending more expensive, impacting everything from auto loans to credit cards to home mortgages.
Uncertainty about the economy has a direct impact on the financial markets. The major indexes have all fallen and the most recent reports on inflation, combined with OPEC’s decisions and Biden’s threats to punish one of our most important allies, could send stocks plummeting even lower.
The drop in the stock market affects everyone, even those who are not traders. However, it seriously impacts retirees whose income depends in part on Wall Street. As the value of retirement accounts drops, it adds to the worry over the rising costs of food, fuel, and other goods. In other words, for many, their income is decreasing as the cost of basic necessities is increasing.
Food banks are struggling with more people needing assistance and food cost increases approaching 20%. The rise in fuel costs directly impacts food costs, as getting food from farm to market to table gets more and more expensive.
The Social Security Administration recently announced a cost of living raise for all recipients of 8.7%, the largest increase in decades. However, with this we are reminded that approximately 27 million retired people have their Social Security benefits as their only source of income. This demographic is probably suffering more than any other.

Common political wisdom states that people vote with their pocketbooks. In other words, the biggest factor in how people vote—and for whom—is how the country is doing financially and, most significantly, how they are personally doing when it comes to providing for their families.

Karl Rove reminds us that since political parties emerged between 1818 and 1824, the party in power has gained House seats only twice in a President’s first midterm election. One was in 1934 as Franklin D. Roosevelt guided Americans through the Great Depression. The other was in 2002, when George W. Bush’s approval ratings were very high following the 9/11 attacks.

A September Gallup poll revealed that 34% of Americans saw the economy as “only fair” and 48% believe it is poor. Where the average American views life in the United States right now is further vividly illustrated by President Biden’s approval rate of 42%. That is bad enough; however, the poll from RealClearPolitics also notes that only 27% of Americans believe America is going in the right direction.

Deservedly or not, these kinds of facts and circumstances are laid at the feet of the President of the United States, whomever that may be at any given time. With President Biden, much of the angst and blame is rightly attributed to him. The long list of missteps, ill-advised policies, and bad optics exponentially increases the feelings of doubt, uncertainty, and even panic that many feel.

The cost of fuel and the feud between the Biden Administration and Saudi Arabia is connected directly to the war on fossil fuel—and the energy industry—declared by President Biden on his first day in office. Canceling pipelines, restricting exploration and permits, and prohibiting drilling and fracking led the U.S. from being energy independent—and an exporter of energy—to a nation seeking oil from uncooperative allies and, worse, from tyrannical regimes like those in Venezuela and Iran. Many Americans must decide between fueling their cars to get to work or putting food on the table for their families.
The above stressors are compounded by foreign policy decisions by the Administration. For the first time for many, they worry about national security in light of a looming nuclear conflict with Russia and doubts about whether their President is up to the task. They are concerned about China and our dependence on that Communist nation for basic goods. They realize that another war is possible if China invades Taiwan. They are still smarting from the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan and President Biden’s unbelievable mishandling of that situation. They do not approve of Biden trying to appease Iran with negotiations over a renewed JCPOA and the possibility that Iran will soon have a nuclear weapon.
Add to this the crisis at our southern border. The President and his team continue to operate in total denial and, contrary to reality, insist that the border is secure. Meanwhile, Americans know that almost four million people have been encountered illegally crossing the border since Biden became President and almost one million others simply got away into the U.S. Over 75 of those apprehended are on terror watchlists. We do not know how many on the terror watchlist are among the got-aways. The open border is a true national security threat. In addition to this, fentanyl floods into the U.S. and over 100,000 Americans have died from this smuggled drug in just one year. It seems the Mexican cartels have operational control of our border and sex trafficking is at an all-time high.

These factors, and others like them, are front and center in the minds of most Americans. This is a time filled with uncertainty. Some are worried; others, angry. However, we are the United States of America. Our representative democracy brings promise. With every election cycle there is renewed hope. We are still a government of, by, and for the people. We have a voice. As we approach the November midterm elections, we have an opportunity to make our choices known and to let our concerns inform our voting.

We are still the most notable and powerful example of self-government in human history, a grand experiment in democracy. There is more to us than our problems and divisions. We must unite where we can, disagree with respect when we are not united on an issue, and pray for the United States of America. There is no other nation like it.