THE DANGER OF A NUCLEAR-ARMED IRAN – Will the U.S. and Israel Take Military Action?

The day after President Biden returned from his trip to the Middle East, the office of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei announced they now have the capability to make a nuclear weapon.  This was no surprise.  On May 30, 2022, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) had already stated that Iran had enough highly enriched uranium to construct a nuclear bomb in approximately 10 days, if they chose to do so.  At that time, Iran denied this and accused the IAEA of putting out false information.  We have all known since 1979 that the world’s largest state-sponsor of terrorism will lie and deceive the world any time it is of benefit to the rogue nation and their hatred of Israel and America.  Iran’s deception and terrorist activities are key to their goal of regional domination and to threatening their neighbors as a nuclear power.

What is hard to believe is that President Obama, and now President Biden, actually believe that Iran will negotiate in good faith, that they could be a reliable partner in the region and could be counted on to not pursue a weapon in exchange for billions of dollars in sanctions relief.  Biden’s predecessor withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) not only because it merely delayed, and did not prevent, Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon.  President Trump also withdrew from the agreement because it was apparent that Iran was lying, cheating, and still secretly pursuing a weapon.  Even recently, as the Biden Administration continued talks with Iran in Vienna and pleaded for Iran to resign the JCPOA with the U.S., the IAEA expressed great concern that Iran was not being forthcoming about its weapons program, had removed the monitoring cameras from their nuclear facilities, and refused to explain how nuclear residue was found at three undeclared sites in Iran.

In 2015, at the inception of the nuclear deal with Iran, over 100 billion dollars was made available to Iran.  Additionally, a planeload of cash secretly flown to Tehran was something the Obama-Biden Administration did not want the world to see.  We saw it.  Iran used those funds to continue their nuclear research and development.  They also used those funds to deliver over 10,000 rockets and missiles to Hamas and Hezbollah and to arm the Houthi Rebels, which allowed that group to overthrow the government of Yemen.  It was Iran, flush with dollars provided by the U.S., that enabled the Houthis to target civilians in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.  The funds also burnished the capability of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), a military organization controlled by Khamenei and listed internationally as a terrorist group.

We learned on Biden’s trip to Israel that the Administration had delivered its final offer to Tehran concerning the renewed JCPOA.  Iran is not likely to sign it.  However, if they did, it would give Iran access to billions of dollars, as well as sanctions relief worth even more.  Knowing what we know, why would the Biden White House even give Iran the opportunity to agree to such a deal, reap billions in funds, and still lie about their work on nuclear weapons?  What was team Biden thinking?  The IAEA had already issued the May report about how Iran was now capable of building the bomb.  Surely, the CIA and other intelligence agencies had also briefed the President on what was secretly happening in Iran.  Yet Biden is still pursuing an agreement?  It defies common sense.  And our own national security, as well as that of Israel and our allies in the Arab Gulf States, is at stake.

According to the IAEA and other experts, it takes approximately 60 pounds of highly enriched uranium to produce one nuclear weapon and Iran has about 95 pounds of the material.  An enrichment level of 90% is required for the weapon.  Presently officials think Iran has enriched to a 60% grade.  However, the IAEA also stated that to take that material to the 90% level could be accomplished in a matter of days—three weeks at the most.  This troubling fact is made worse since the Obama Administration did not put any restrictions in the original nuclear agreement that limited Iran’s research and development of ballistic missiles—the delivery vehicle for such weapons.

It is significant that not only is Israel against such a naïve agreement with Iran, but the Arab Gulf States are also strongly against it.  Even members of the President’s political party have cautioned the President.  Yet in his remarks after meeting with officials in Israel, Biden still contended that diplomacy and negotiations were the best way to keep Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon.  Israel’s Prime Minister Lapid publicly disagreed with Biden at that press conference and made the case that no amount of words or diplomacy would stop Iran from acquiring such a weapon.  Lapid also stated, “The only way to stop them is to put a credible military threat on the table.”  Later, on Israeli television, Biden reluctantly agreed that military action against Iran might be a last resort to stop their development of nuclear weapons.

Both Israel and the United States have categorically declared that they will not allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon.  President Biden even stated at the closing news conference in Israel, “We will not allow Iran to acquire a nuclear weapon.”  That is pretty clear.  For what it is worth with this President, it was an unambiguous declaration.

So, what happens next?  Iran’s intransigence, their maniacal desire to have a nuclear weapon, is obvious.  If they insist on defying the U.S. and Israel, will we have a new war in the Middle East?  Or will Iran say they are abandoning their pursuit of these weapons and in exchange reap billions of dollars and reenter the world oil market—even though we would know they are lying.  Israeli and U.S. intelligence would know if Iran continued the program clandestinely.  Would the U.S. and Israel then attack Iran?

It seems that there are no realistic scenarios that preclude military action.  Hopefully, if it comes to that, a strike could be made targeting the nuclear facilities and setting Iran’s program back.  And hopefully, the military might and the joint determination of the U.S. and Israel would stop Iran from attempting a counterstrike against Israel or one of our Gulf allies.  We hope there would not be a wider war. However, that is a lot of “hoping.”  And it is regrettable that weakness and vacillation in U.S. presidential administrations have led us to this.  However, the other option would be to have a nuclear-armed Iran that has promised to annihilate Israel and has already shown a willingness to attack U.S. soldiers and facilities.  That is worse than a military strike against Iran—much worse.