A Dangerous New Turn in Egypt

It has been almost forty years since the combined Egyptian and Syrian armies launched a surprise attack on Israel during Yom Kippur, the holiest day in Judaism. Few remember that war today – with tank battles larger than any seen since World War II, outmanned Israeli units sacrificing themselves to save their nation from oblivion, and then – ultimately – a dangerous superpower confrontation after Israel turned the tide and the Soviet Union signaled its willingness to rescue its Egyptian allies. Few remember, but we all should.

In nineteen days of pitched battles, one million soldiers were engaged, 4,000 tanks took the field, and combined casualties ranged up to 65,000 killed and wounded. The war ended with Israeli forces on the west bank of the Suez canal, an entire Egyptian army surrounded and on the verge of dying of thirst in the Sinai, and the Syrian military utterly shattered. But the victory came at high cost to Israel. Israelis realized – once again – how difficult it is to defend their small nation, how razor-thin their margin for error.

After Yom Kippur came peace – a peace that has lasted for more than 30 years. Egypt, exhausted and bloodied by war after war against Israel, finally had enough. America, determined to prevent a recurrence of the terrifying bloodshed and brinksmanship of October 1973 essentially bribed the Egyptians to stand down. Billions of dollars of aid flowed in to an authoritarian Mubarak regime, a flawed regime to be sure, but one that kept the peace.

But what have our billions bought us now – as the Muslim Brotherhood asserts control over Egyptian life and politics? Last week an Egyptian mob tore down the wall surrounding the Israeli embassy and stormed the building. This is a grave violation of international law. An embassy is considered sovereign territory, and civilized states have an absolute obligation to protect the diplomats and embassies on their soil.

This action of course follows the recent use of Egyptian territory by an al Qaeda affiliate to slaughter Israeli citizens and raises serious questions about the future of the Israeli/Egyptian relationship. Are we drifting back to the days of force-on-force confrontation between the IDF and Arab armies?

As we ponder the future, we cannot have any illusions about the goals and nature of the Muslim Brotherhood. If they consolidate their control over Egypt, the Arab World’s most powerful and consequential country will be in the hands of a group dedicated to the destruction of Israel. That may not mean immediate, open war but make no mistake: the intention of the Muslim Brotherhood is to use the most effective means at their disposal to destroy Israel. If that means terrorism, they’ll use terrorism. If that means lawfare, they’ll use lawfare.

And if they believe they can win, it will mean open war. Like October, 1973, the night sky will be lit up by the volleys of artillery batteries, a thousand tanks will surge forward, and Israel will once again fight for its life.